Download PDF The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto Book 2) By Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Ebook About The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don’t know, now with a new section called “On Robustness and Fragility.”A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan.Book The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto Book 2) Review :
Already lots of reviews on this work but I have an additional thought or two. I would have liked to have given this book a higher rating but Dr. Taleb's incessant jibes at mathematicians, economists, those working within the financial markets, and even biologists (!!!) quickly gets VERY old. There are sections where every single page has some reference to this field or that which, in his estimation, is populated by nothing but the village idiots.I can certainly understand him taking exception with those who, at least in the lead up to 2008, steered us onto the financial rocks, but his beating of the same drum quickly grows stale. Here I think of the maxim that at some point you have to fix the problem and not the blame. This book could have been a hundred pages shorter--perhaps a 20,000 word piece of long-form journalism.He also drifts to and fro quite a bit in his writing. While I truly enjoy his erudition and a touch of the circumlocution, this work would have been much better served if he had kept to the task at hand.There are a couple of redeeming aspects to his effort however. His admonition that it is better to prepare than it is to predict are wise words in any walk of life and here he frames them nicely.Also, in the epilogue he lists his "Ten principles for a black swan robust society." These are wonderful admonitions such as society should not socialize the losses and privatize the gains. Capitalism is about rewards and punishments not just rewards is another good point. This short section is well worth your time.I also liked his introduction to the reader of the concept of iatrogenics--making sure no lasting harm is done while trying to help.This would have worked much better in 20K words and without the snide comments regarding others and their fields of study. I think an admonishment that fits here is the "play the ball not the man."Neal Schier - June 2018 I hated this book more than any other book I've read in the past 3 years. I gave up after about 120 pages. This author is so incredibly self-indulgent and pompous. And the core message of the book - which is worth perhaps one single chapter - is one that I have known as an adult simply from observation of life. You can't anticipate every game-changing event. There are major things that will just happen, that you can't anticipate. Yeah, no doubt.Actually, the far-and-away most interesting parts of the book were the author's stories about Lebanon, which I found fascinating. I'd read a whole book about that, by this author. But that was about 10% of the book, and the rest of it was pompous junk. Read Online The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto Book 2) Download The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto Book 2) The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto Book 2) PDF The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto Book 2) Mobi Free Reading The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto Book 2) Download Free Pdf The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto Book 2) PDF Online The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto Book 2) Mobi Online The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto Book 2) Reading Online The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Incerto Book 2) Read Online Nassim Nicholas Taleb Download Nassim Nicholas Taleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb PDF Nassim Nicholas Taleb Mobi Free Reading Nassim Nicholas Taleb Download Free Pdf Nassim Nicholas Taleb PDF Online Nassim Nicholas Taleb Mobi Online Nassim Nicholas Taleb Reading Online Nassim Nicholas TalebDownload Mobi Make Noise: A Creator's Guide to Podcasting and Great Audio Storytelling By Eric Nuzum
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